Improvement of distributed snowmelt energy balance modeling with MODIS‐based NDSI‐derived fractional snow‐covered area data     

Joel W. Homan  Charles H. Luce  James P. McNamara  Nancy F. Glenn 《水文研究》2011,25(4):650-660

Describing the spatial variability of heterogeneous snowpacks at a watershed or mountain‐front scale is important for improvements in large‐scale snowmelt modelling. Snowmelt depletion curves, which relate fractional decreases in snow‐covered area (SCA) against normalized decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE), are a common approach to scale‐up snowmelt models. Unfortunately, the kinds of ground‐based observations that are used to develop depletion curves are expensive to gather and impractical for large areas. We describe an approach incorporating remotely sensed fractional SCA (FSCA) data with coinciding daily snowmelt SWE outputs during ablation to quantify the shape of a depletion curve. We joined melt estimates from the Utah Energy Balance Snow Accumulation and Melt Model (UEB) with FSCA data calculated from a normalized difference snow index snow algorithm using NASA's moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) visible (0·545–0·565 µm) and shortwave infrared (1·628–1·652 µm) reflectance data. We tested the approach at three 500 m² study sites, one in central Idaho and the other two on the North Slope in the Alaskan arctic. The UEB‐MODIS‐derived depletion curves were evaluated against depletion curves derived from ground‐based snow surveys. Comparisons showed strong agreement between the independent estimates. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Permafrost‐thaw‐induced land‐cover change in the Canadian subarctic: implications for water resources     

W.L. Quinton  M. Hayashi  L.E. Chasmer 《水文研究》2011,25(1):152-158

Climate warming and human disturbance in north‐western Canada have been accompanied by degradation of permafrost, which introduces considerable uncertainty to the future availability of northern freshwater resources. This study demonstrates the rate and spatial pattern of permafrost loss in a region that typifies the southern boundary of permafrost. Remote‐sensing analysis of a 1·0 km² area indicates that permafrost occupied 0·70 km² in 1947 and decreased with time to 0·43 km² by 2008. Ground‐based measurements demonstrate the importance of horizontal heat flows in thawing discontinuous permafrost, and show that such thaw produces dramatic land‐cover changes that can alter basin runoff production in this region. A major challenge to northern water resources management in the twenty‐first century therefore lies in predicting stream flows dynamically in the context of widely occurring permafrost thaw. The need for appropriate water resource planning, mitigation, and adaptation strategies is explained. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A distributed thermodynamic model for energy and mass balance computation: FEST–EWB     

Chiara Corbari  Giovanni Ravazzani  Marco Mancini 《水文研究》2011,25(9):1443-1452

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Energy balance and evaporation loss of an irrigation reservoir equipped with a suspended cover in a semiarid climate (south‐eastern Spain)     

B. Gallego‐Elvira  A. Baille  B. Martin‐Gorriz  J. F. Maestre‐Valero  V. Martínez‐Alvarez 《水文研究》2011,25(11):1694-1703

The main objective of this study was to assess the impact of a suspended cover on the evaporation loss of an agricultural water reservoir (AWR). To this aim, a detailed data collection was carried out in a typical AWR located in south‐eastern Spain during 2 consecutive years. During the first year, the reservoir remained uncovered, while during the second year it was covered with a double black polyethylene (PE) shade cloth. On an annual scale, it was observed that the cover can provide a reduction of evaporation loss of 85%. Two approaches, energy balance and mass transfer, were used to analyse the effect of the cover on the evaporation process. Important modifications were observed on the magnitude, sign, annual trend and relative weight of the components of the energy balance. The changes were ascribed to the strong reduction of net radiation and to the substantial weight of the heat storage and sensible heat flux in the energy balance. A relevant finding was the contrast between the patterns of the annual evaporation curve for open‐water and covered conditions. The mass transfer approach allowed discriminating between the wind‐ and radiation‐shelter effects on the evaporation term. The reduction in water‐to‐air vapour deficit was the main factor explaining the high efficiency of the cover, whereas the reduction of the mass transfer coefficient was a modulating factor that accounted for the wind‐shelter effect. Overall, both approaches provided a sound basis to describe and explain the physical mechanisms underlying the high performance of the tested cover. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Input data resolution‐induced uncertainty in watershed modelling     

Abhijit Patil  Zhi‐Qiang Deng  Ronald F. Malone 《水文研究》2011,25(14):2302-2312

The temporal‐spatial resolution of input data‐induced uncertainty in a watershed‐based water quality model, Hydrologic Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF), is investigated in this study. The temporal resolution‐induced uncertainty is described using the coefficient of variation (CV). The CV is found to decrease with decreasing temporal resolution and follow a log‐normal relation with time interval for temperature data while it exhibits a power‐law relation for rainfall data. The temporal‐scale uncertainties in the temperature and rainfall data follow a general extreme value distribution and a Weibull distribution, respectively. The Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient (NSC) is employed to represent the spatial resolution induced uncertainty. The spatial resolution uncertainty in the dissolved oxygen and nitrate‐nitrogen concentrations simulated using HSPF is observed to follow a general extreme value distribution and a log‐normal distribution, respectively. The probability density functions (PDF) provide new insights into the effect of temporal‐scale and spatial resolution of input data on uncertainties involved in watershed modelling and total maximum daily load calculations. This study exhibits non‐symmetric distributions of uncertainty in water quality modelling, which simplify weather and water quality monitoring and reducing the cost involved in flow and water quality monitoring. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Simulation of evapotranspiration and carbon dioxide flux in the wheat‐maize rotation croplands of the North China Plain using the Simple Biosphere Model     

Huimin Lei  Dawen Yang  Yanjun Shen  Yu Liu  Yucui Zhang 《水文研究》2011,25(20):3107-3120

The North China Plain, which is critical for food production in China, is encountering serious water shortage due to heavy agricultural water requirement. The accurate modelling of carbon dioxide flux and evapotranspiration (ET) in croplands is thus essential for yield prediction and water resources management. The land surface model is powerful in simulating energy and carbon dioxide fluxes between land and atmosphere. Some key processes in the Simple Biosphere Model (Version 2, SiB2) were parameterized based on the observations. The simulated fluxes were tested against the eddy covariance flux measurements over two typical winter wheat/maize double cropping fields. A simple diagnostic parameterisation of soil respiration, not included in SiB2, was added and calibrated using the observations to model the carbon budget. The Ball‐Berry stomatal conductance model was calibrated using observed leaf gas exchange rate, showing that the original SiB2 could significantly underpredict the ET in the wheat field. SiB2 significantly underpredicted soil resistance at the Weishan site, leading to overpredict the ET. Overall, there was a close agreement between the simulated and observed latent heat fluxes and net CO₂ exchange using the re‐parameterized SiB2. These findings are important when the model is used for the regional simulation in the North China Plain. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing possible changes in flood frequency due to climate change in mid‐sized watersheds in New York State,USA     

Stephen B. Shaw  Susan J. Riha 《水文研究》2011,25(16):2542-2550

The frequency of flooding is often presumed to increase with climate change because of projected increases in rainfall intensities. In this paper, using 50‐plus years of historical discharge and meteorological data from three watersheds in different physiographic regions of New York State, USA, we find that annual maximum stream discharges are associated with 20% or less of the annual maximum rainfall events. Instead of rainfall events, approximately 20% of annual maximum stream discharges are associated with annual maximum snowmelt events while 60% of annual maximum discharges are associated with moderate rainfall amounts and very wet soil conditions. To explore the potential for changes in future flood risk, we employed a compound frequency distribution that assumes annual maximum discharges can be modelled by combining the cumulative distribution functions of discharges resulting from annual maximum rainfall, annual maximum snowmelt, and occurrences of moderate rain on wet soils. Basing on a compound frequency distribution comprised of univariate general extreme value (GEV) and gamma distributions, we found that a hypothetical 20% increase in the magnitude of rainfall‐related stream discharge results in little change in 96th percentile annual maximum discharge. For the 99th percentile discharge, two waterbodies in our study had a 10% or less increase in annual maximum discharge when annual maximum rainfall‐related discharges increased 20% while the third waterbody had a 16% increase in annual maximum discharges. Additionally, in some cases, annual maximum discharges could be offset by a reduction in the discharge resulting from annual maximum snowmelt events. While only intended as a heuristic tool to explore the interaction among different flood‐causing mechanisms, use of a compound flood frequency distribution suggests a case can be made that not all waterbodies in humid, cold regions will see extensive changes in flooding due to increased rainfall intensities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Lake Ladoga ice phenology: Mean condition and extremes during the last 65 years     

Sergey Karetnikov  Mikhail Naumenko 《水文研究》2011,25(18):2859-2867

Winter conditions play an important role for the largest lake in Europe—Lake Ladoga. The ice cover lasts for 171 ± 3 days on average from the early November until the mid‐May. We investigated the ice regime of Lake Ladoga using a constructed ice database of aircraft surveys and satellite images. More than 1250 surveys of the lake's ice cover from 1943 to 2010 were collected and analysed to determine mean and extreme ice conditions for winters of different types of severity. The time series of ice cover percentage over the lake was plotted. On average, 18 observational ice charts were made every winter. Individual ice phenology records show considerable year‐to‐year variation. For this reason, records typically have been combined and analysed as groups (categories). Extremely cold winters were determined as winters with complete ice cover that lasts more than three months which is approximately 90% quartiles from all winters with complete ice cover. The lake surface was completely covered with ice for more than three months during 5 seasons. Extremely warm winters when the maximum ice cover was less than 70% of the lake area occurred during 5 seasons as well. A basic relationship between the winter severity as winter maximum of accumulated freezing degree‐days (AFDD) and the earlier derived Relative Ice Cover Index (RICI) was established. We have used teleconnection indices such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the period from October to May for estimation of different types of Lake Ladoga's ice conditions. The AO index in winter months and local winter maximum of AFDD explained much of the interannual variation in ice cover. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A broad‐scale assessment of the effect of improved soil management on catchment baseflow index     

I. P. Holman  T. M. Hess  S. C. Rose 《水文研究》2011,25(16):2563-2572

Although the importance of sustainable soil management is recognized, there are many threats to soils including widespread soil structural degradation. This reduces infiltration through the soil surface and/or the percolation of water through the soil profile, with important consequences for crop yields, nutrient cycling and the hydrological response of catchments. This article describes a broad‐scale modelling approach to assess the potential effect that improved agricultural soil management, through reduced soil structural degradation, may have on the baseflow index (BFI) of catchments across England and Wales. A daily soil–water balance model was used to simulate the indicative BFI of 45 696 thirty‐year model runs for different combinations of soil type, soil/field condition, land cover class and climate which encapsulate the variability across England and Wales. The indicative BFI of catchments was then calculated by upscaling the results by spatial weighting. WaSim model outputs of indicative BFI were within the 95% confidence intervals of the national‐average BFI values given for the Hydrology of Soil Type (HOST ? ) classes for 26 of the 28 classes. At the catchment scale, the concordance correlation coefficient between the BFI from the WaSim model outputs and those derived from HOST was 0·83. Plausible improvements in agricultural soil/field condition produced modest simulated increases of up to 10% in the indicative BFI in most catchments across England and Wales, although for much of southern and northern England the increases were less than 5%. The results suggest that improved soil management might partially mitigate the expected adverse effects of climate change on baseflow to rivers. Healthy, well‐functioning soils produce many additional benefits such as better agricultural yields and reduced pollutant movement, so improved soil management should provide win‐win opportunities for society, agricultural systems and the environment and provide resilience to some of the expected environmental impacts of climate change. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Plio-Pleistocene mammals from Mille-Logya,Ethiopia, and the post-Hadar faunal change     

Denis Geraads  Denne Reed  W. Andrew Barr  René Bobe  Peter Stamos  Zeresenay Alemseged 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(6):1073-1089

We describe the non-primate mammalian fauna from the late Pliocene to earliest Pleistocene deposits of Mille-Logya in the Lower Awash Valley, Ethiopia, dated to c. 2.9–2.4 Ma, and divided into three successive units: Gafura, Seraitu, and Uraitele. We identify 41 mammalian taxa (including rodents), the most diverse group being the Bovidae, with 17 taxa. While the Gafura assemblage still resembles those from the earlier Hadar Formation, the younger Seraitu assemblage documents a major turnover. While there is little change in the species present across this interval, the relative abundances of various taxa change dramatically, with suids being largely replaced by open-country bovids (Alcelaphini and Antilopini). We interpret this faunal change as reflective of an environmental shift, contemporaneous with the replacement of Australopithecus afarensis by Homo in the area.  相似文献